FAO unveils important bioenergy assessment tool to ensure food security, shows global biofuels potential
An international team of scientists under the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has unveiled a much needed planning tool that allows countries to tap their bioenergy production potential while ensuring food security. The decision-support tool is based on mathematical models often referred to by Biopact. Peru, Thailand and Tanzania will try it out first, before it is released to the international community. The tool makes the discussion about the biofuels potential and the food versus fuel debate far more rigorous.
Scientists know that the technical potential for the sustainable production of bioenergy and biofuels is very large. Under the QUICKSCAN model, developed by the University of Utrecht's Copernicus Institute, used by the International Energy Agency and now also by the FAO, this potential is estimated to be maximum 1545 Exajoules per year by 2050, the bulk of it found in Africa and Latin America. 1545 EJ is more than 6 times the current amount of petroleum used by the entire world (total global energy demand today is 420EJ/yr, of which around 220EJ comes in the form of oil products).
The QUICKSCAN model, widely recognised as being the most robust and complete analytical framework, takes a bottom-up approach (schematic, click to enlarge) to estimate the sustainable bioenergy production potential. It first calculates and projects all food, fiber, fodder and forest product needs of growing populations, under different population growth scenarios. It then looks at the amount of land left for biofuels and bioenergy. This land base is explicitly taken to be non-forest land (no deforestation allowed) and sets aside land that is protected. It then allocates different crops to different types of land after which a scenario component is introduced reflecting potential yield and land availability increases resulting from agronomical changes.
The end result of the projections is an amount of bioenergy that a given region can produce sustainably over time, while meeting all needs of growing local populations and without damaging the environment. Maximum potential for sub-Saharan Africa is 347 EJ per year by 2050; for South America and the Caribbean 279 EJ, for the C.I.S. and Baltic States 269 EJ (map, click to enlarge). Biopact has consistently based its discussion of the regional and global biofuels opportunity on these assessments and the research papers developed from it (see references).
The tool now developed by a team of economists from FAO, Utrecht University’s Copernicus Institute and Darmstadt’s Oeko-Institut, is based on coupling QUICKSCAN to COSIMO, which models the agricultural sector in a large number of developing countries. The result is the new analytical framework, unveiled at a two-day experts’ meeting of FAO’s Bioenergy and Food Security (BEFS) project, which must make it possible for countries to develop strategies to tap the technical potential and turn it into real potential in a socially sustainable way.
The three-year project, funded by Germany, is aimed at making sure that bioenergy does not impair global food security. The analytical framework allows governments interested in entering the bioenergy sector to calculate the effect of their policy decisions on the food security of their populations.
Bioenergy can affect food prices and rural incomes and thus has important implications – both positive and negative — for food security. Potential negative effects are increased food prices for poor urban populations. Positive effects are the new market opportunities for vast poor rural populations and the increased income derived from these new markets; the capacity to strengthen rural development; and the opportunity to make developing countries less dependent on imported food and petroleum products, which both affect local food production:
energy :: sustainability :: biomass :: bioenergy :: biofuels :: food security :: rural development :: climate change :: UN :: FAO ::
Applying the analytical framework will enable national policy-makers to minimise negative consequences while maximising positive outcomes. A prerequisite for running the framework is the establishment of a bioenergy development scenario, a process in which FAO helps government clearly define their bioenergy policy options and the various possible strategies to achieve those options.
The analytical framework then makes it possible, through five steps, to assess: technical biomass potential; biomass production costs; the economic bioenergy potential; macro-economic consequences; national and household-level impact and consequences on food security:
Analysis of the results will make it possible to determine actual bioenergy potential and which households are most vulnerable and thus at risk of food insecurity.
The model draws on existing mathematical modelling tools such as QUICKSCAN, which calculates global bioenergy potential to 2050, and FAO’s COSIMO, which models the agricultural sector in a large number of developing countries.
The framework will be field-tested in three countries – Peru, Thailand and Tanzania – before the analytical framework methodology is made available to the international community at large.
Alexander Müller, FAO assistant director-general for natural resources and the environment, said FAO would make every effort to ensure that food security issues are on the table when a successor to the present Kyoto Protocol is negotiated.
Müller said climate change could reduce yields from the main crops in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa by up to 40 percent in the next 25 years, notably in Southern Africa. In other parts such as Eastern Africa and the Sahel yields could increase by up to 20 percent. But food security is not part of the negotiations road map adopted at last December’s UN Conference in Bali, and this hiatus must be taken into account.
The challenge will be huge for sub-Saharan Africa, Mr Muller said, adding that according to experts the development of the bioenergy sector in Africa could help mitigate the effects of climate change there.
FAO is organizing a High Level Conference on World Food Security and the Challenges of Climate Change and Bioenergy in Rome from 3 to 5 June.
References:
FAO: FAO unveils new bioenergy assessment tool - February 11, 2008.
FAO Natural Resources Management and Environment Department: FAO Climate Change and Bioenergy Unit.
IEA Bioenergy Executive Committee: Potential Contribution of Bioenergy to the World's Future Energy Demand - September 2007.
The Quickscan model has resulted in a large number of important research reports and papers about the global and regional bioenergy potential. The model is widely applied by researchers who work for the International Energy Agency Bioenergy Task 40, which analyses global biomass potential and trade.
Some of the most widely quoted (only from the Copernicus Institute's researchers) are:
Edward M.W. Smeets, André P.C. Faaij, Iris M. Lewandowski, Wim C. Turkenburg, A quickscan of global bio-energy potentials to 2050. Progress in Energy and Combustion Science, Volume 33, Issue 1, February 2007, Pages 56-106
Andre Faaij (2007), Global Outlook on Development of Sustainable Biomass Resource Potentials [*.pdf], First Conference of the European Biomass Co-Firing Network, Budapest, Hungary, July 2007.
M. Hoogwijk, A. Faaij, R. van den Broek, G. Berndes, D. Gielen, W. Turkenburg, Exploration of the ranges of the global potential of biomass for energy. Biomass and Bioenergy, Vol. 25 No.2, 2003, pp. 119-133.
Hoogwijk, M., Faaij, A., Eickhout, B., de Vries, B. and Turkenburg, W. 2005a. Potential of biomass energy out to 2100, for four IPCC SRES land-use scenarios, Biomass & Bioenergy, Vol. 29, Issue 4, October, Pp. 225-257.
C. Hamelinck, A. Faaij, H. den Uil, H. Boerrigter, Production of FT transportation fuels from biomass; technical options, process analysis and optimisation and development potential. Energy, the International Journal, Vol. 29, No. 11, September 2004, Pp. 1743-1771
Carlo N. Hamelinck, Geertje van Hooijdonk, André P.C. Faaij, Future prospects for the production of ethanol from ligno-cellulosic biomass. Biomass & Bioenergy, Vol. 28, Issue 4, April 2005, Pages 384-410
Carlo N. Hamelinck, Roald A.A. Suurs, André P.C. Faaij, Techno-economic analysis of International Bio-energy Trade Chains. Biomass & Bioenergy, Vol. 29, Issue 2, August 2005, Pages 114-134
Monique Hoogwijk, André Faaij, Bas Eickhout, Bert de Vries, Wim Turkenburg, Potential of biomass energy out to 2100, for four IPCC SRES land-use scenarios, Biomass & Bioenergy, Vol. 29, Issue 4, October 2005, Pages 225-257.
André P.C. Faaij, Bio-energy in Europe: Changing technology choices. Energy Policy (Special Issue on Renewable Energy in Europe), Vol 34/3, February 2006, Pp. 322-342
I. Lewandowski, A. Faaij, Steps towards the development of a certification system for sustainable bio-energy trade, Biomass & Bio-energy, Volume 30, Issue 2, February 2006, Pages 83-104
Bothwell Batidzirai, André Faaij, Edward Smeets, Biomass and bioenergy supply from Mozambique, Energy for Sustainable Development, Vol X. No.1, March 2006. Pp. 54-81
Andre P.C. Faaij, Julije Domac, Emerging international bio-energy markets and opportunities for socio-economic development, Energy for Sustainable Development, Vol X. No.1, March 2006. Pp. 7-19
K. Damen, A. Faaij, A Greenhouse gas balance of two existing international biomass import chains; the case of residue co-firing in a pulverised coal-fired power plant in the Netherlands Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change (Special Issue), Volume 11, Number 5-6, September 2006, Pp. 1023-1050.
Junginger, M., Faaij, A., Rosillo-Calle, F., Wood, J., The growing role of biofuels - Opportunities, challenges and pitfalls, International Sugar Journal, Volume 108, Issue 1295, November 2006, Pages 618-629
C. Hamelinck, A.Faaij, Outlook for advanced biofuels. Energy Policy, Vol. 34, Issue 17, November 2006, Pages 3268-3283
M. Junginger, E. de Visser, K. Hjort-Gregersen, J. Koornneef, R. Raven, A. Faaij, W.C. Turkenburg Technological learning in bio-energy systems. Energy Policy, Volume 34, Issue 18, December 2006, Pages 4024-4041
V. Dornburg, J. van Dam, A. Faaij, Estimating GHG emission mitigation supply curves of large scale biomass use on a country level (In Press: Biomass & Bioenergy, 2006)
E. Smeets, A. Faaij, Bioenergy potentials from forestry to 2050 (In press: Climatic Change, 2006).
J. van Dam, A. Faaij, I. Lewandowski, G. Fischer, Biomass production potentials in Central and Eastern Europe under different scenario’s. (In Press: Biomass & Bioenergy)
Martijn Verdonk, Carel Dieperink, André Faaij, Governance of the emerging bio-energy markets (In Press: Energy Policy)
Article continues
Scientists know that the technical potential for the sustainable production of bioenergy and biofuels is very large. Under the QUICKSCAN model, developed by the University of Utrecht's Copernicus Institute, used by the International Energy Agency and now also by the FAO, this potential is estimated to be maximum 1545 Exajoules per year by 2050, the bulk of it found in Africa and Latin America. 1545 EJ is more than 6 times the current amount of petroleum used by the entire world (total global energy demand today is 420EJ/yr, of which around 220EJ comes in the form of oil products).
The QUICKSCAN model, widely recognised as being the most robust and complete analytical framework, takes a bottom-up approach (schematic, click to enlarge) to estimate the sustainable bioenergy production potential. It first calculates and projects all food, fiber, fodder and forest product needs of growing populations, under different population growth scenarios. It then looks at the amount of land left for biofuels and bioenergy. This land base is explicitly taken to be non-forest land (no deforestation allowed) and sets aside land that is protected. It then allocates different crops to different types of land after which a scenario component is introduced reflecting potential yield and land availability increases resulting from agronomical changes.
The end result of the projections is an amount of bioenergy that a given region can produce sustainably over time, while meeting all needs of growing local populations and without damaging the environment. Maximum potential for sub-Saharan Africa is 347 EJ per year by 2050; for South America and the Caribbean 279 EJ, for the C.I.S. and Baltic States 269 EJ (map, click to enlarge). Biopact has consistently based its discussion of the regional and global biofuels opportunity on these assessments and the research papers developed from it (see references).
The tool now developed by a team of economists from FAO, Utrecht University’s Copernicus Institute and Darmstadt’s Oeko-Institut, is based on coupling QUICKSCAN to COSIMO, which models the agricultural sector in a large number of developing countries. The result is the new analytical framework, unveiled at a two-day experts’ meeting of FAO’s Bioenergy and Food Security (BEFS) project, which must make it possible for countries to develop strategies to tap the technical potential and turn it into real potential in a socially sustainable way.
The three-year project, funded by Germany, is aimed at making sure that bioenergy does not impair global food security. The analytical framework allows governments interested in entering the bioenergy sector to calculate the effect of their policy decisions on the food security of their populations.
Bioenergy can affect food prices and rural incomes and thus has important implications – both positive and negative — for food security. Potential negative effects are increased food prices for poor urban populations. Positive effects are the new market opportunities for vast poor rural populations and the increased income derived from these new markets; the capacity to strengthen rural development; and the opportunity to make developing countries less dependent on imported food and petroleum products, which both affect local food production:

Applying the analytical framework will enable national policy-makers to minimise negative consequences while maximising positive outcomes. A prerequisite for running the framework is the establishment of a bioenergy development scenario, a process in which FAO helps government clearly define their bioenergy policy options and the various possible strategies to achieve those options.
The analytical framework then makes it possible, through five steps, to assess: technical biomass potential; biomass production costs; the economic bioenergy potential; macro-economic consequences; national and household-level impact and consequences on food security:
Analysis of the results will make it possible to determine actual bioenergy potential and which households are most vulnerable and thus at risk of food insecurity.
The model draws on existing mathematical modelling tools such as QUICKSCAN, which calculates global bioenergy potential to 2050, and FAO’s COSIMO, which models the agricultural sector in a large number of developing countries.
The framework will be field-tested in three countries – Peru, Thailand and Tanzania – before the analytical framework methodology is made available to the international community at large.
Alexander Müller, FAO assistant director-general for natural resources and the environment, said FAO would make every effort to ensure that food security issues are on the table when a successor to the present Kyoto Protocol is negotiated.
Müller said climate change could reduce yields from the main crops in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa by up to 40 percent in the next 25 years, notably in Southern Africa. In other parts such as Eastern Africa and the Sahel yields could increase by up to 20 percent. But food security is not part of the negotiations road map adopted at last December’s UN Conference in Bali, and this hiatus must be taken into account.
The challenge will be huge for sub-Saharan Africa, Mr Muller said, adding that according to experts the development of the bioenergy sector in Africa could help mitigate the effects of climate change there.
FAO is organizing a High Level Conference on World Food Security and the Challenges of Climate Change and Bioenergy in Rome from 3 to 5 June.
References:
FAO: FAO unveils new bioenergy assessment tool - February 11, 2008.
FAO Natural Resources Management and Environment Department: FAO Climate Change and Bioenergy Unit.
IEA Bioenergy Executive Committee: Potential Contribution of Bioenergy to the World's Future Energy Demand - September 2007.
The Quickscan model has resulted in a large number of important research reports and papers about the global and regional bioenergy potential. The model is widely applied by researchers who work for the International Energy Agency Bioenergy Task 40, which analyses global biomass potential and trade.
Some of the most widely quoted (only from the Copernicus Institute's researchers) are:
Edward M.W. Smeets, André P.C. Faaij, Iris M. Lewandowski, Wim C. Turkenburg, A quickscan of global bio-energy potentials to 2050. Progress in Energy and Combustion Science, Volume 33, Issue 1, February 2007, Pages 56-106
Andre Faaij (2007), Global Outlook on Development of Sustainable Biomass Resource Potentials [*.pdf], First Conference of the European Biomass Co-Firing Network, Budapest, Hungary, July 2007.
M. Hoogwijk, A. Faaij, R. van den Broek, G. Berndes, D. Gielen, W. Turkenburg, Exploration of the ranges of the global potential of biomass for energy. Biomass and Bioenergy, Vol. 25 No.2, 2003, pp. 119-133.
Hoogwijk, M., Faaij, A., Eickhout, B., de Vries, B. and Turkenburg, W. 2005a. Potential of biomass energy out to 2100, for four IPCC SRES land-use scenarios, Biomass & Bioenergy, Vol. 29, Issue 4, October, Pp. 225-257.
C. Hamelinck, A. Faaij, H. den Uil, H. Boerrigter, Production of FT transportation fuels from biomass; technical options, process analysis and optimisation and development potential. Energy, the International Journal, Vol. 29, No. 11, September 2004, Pp. 1743-1771
Carlo N. Hamelinck, Geertje van Hooijdonk, André P.C. Faaij, Future prospects for the production of ethanol from ligno-cellulosic biomass. Biomass & Bioenergy, Vol. 28, Issue 4, April 2005, Pages 384-410
Carlo N. Hamelinck, Roald A.A. Suurs, André P.C. Faaij, Techno-economic analysis of International Bio-energy Trade Chains. Biomass & Bioenergy, Vol. 29, Issue 2, August 2005, Pages 114-134
Monique Hoogwijk, André Faaij, Bas Eickhout, Bert de Vries, Wim Turkenburg, Potential of biomass energy out to 2100, for four IPCC SRES land-use scenarios, Biomass & Bioenergy, Vol. 29, Issue 4, October 2005, Pages 225-257.
André P.C. Faaij, Bio-energy in Europe: Changing technology choices. Energy Policy (Special Issue on Renewable Energy in Europe), Vol 34/3, February 2006, Pp. 322-342
I. Lewandowski, A. Faaij, Steps towards the development of a certification system for sustainable bio-energy trade, Biomass & Bio-energy, Volume 30, Issue 2, February 2006, Pages 83-104
Bothwell Batidzirai, André Faaij, Edward Smeets, Biomass and bioenergy supply from Mozambique, Energy for Sustainable Development, Vol X. No.1, March 2006. Pp. 54-81
Andre P.C. Faaij, Julije Domac, Emerging international bio-energy markets and opportunities for socio-economic development, Energy for Sustainable Development, Vol X. No.1, March 2006. Pp. 7-19
K. Damen, A. Faaij, A Greenhouse gas balance of two existing international biomass import chains; the case of residue co-firing in a pulverised coal-fired power plant in the Netherlands Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change (Special Issue), Volume 11, Number 5-6, September 2006, Pp. 1023-1050.
Junginger, M., Faaij, A., Rosillo-Calle, F., Wood, J., The growing role of biofuels - Opportunities, challenges and pitfalls, International Sugar Journal, Volume 108, Issue 1295, November 2006, Pages 618-629
C. Hamelinck, A.Faaij, Outlook for advanced biofuels. Energy Policy, Vol. 34, Issue 17, November 2006, Pages 3268-3283
M. Junginger, E. de Visser, K. Hjort-Gregersen, J. Koornneef, R. Raven, A. Faaij, W.C. Turkenburg Technological learning in bio-energy systems. Energy Policy, Volume 34, Issue 18, December 2006, Pages 4024-4041
V. Dornburg, J. van Dam, A. Faaij, Estimating GHG emission mitigation supply curves of large scale biomass use on a country level (In Press: Biomass & Bioenergy, 2006)
E. Smeets, A. Faaij, Bioenergy potentials from forestry to 2050 (In press: Climatic Change, 2006).
J. van Dam, A. Faaij, I. Lewandowski, G. Fischer, Biomass production potentials in Central and Eastern Europe under different scenario’s. (In Press: Biomass & Bioenergy)
Martijn Verdonk, Carel Dieperink, André Faaij, Governance of the emerging bio-energy markets (In Press: Energy Policy)
Article continues
Monday, February 11, 2008
WMO: La Niña conditions strengthen, expected to continue
La Niña conditions, which started in the third quarter of 2007, continue across the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific, the WMO says. Basin-wide features are now typical of the mature stage of a La Niña event, including in the western Equatorial Pacific. The magnitude of the event continues to be in the middle range of those observed in the historical record.
The La Niña event is expected to continue at least through the first quarter of 2008. Many La Niña events in the historical record are found to decay rapidly during the March-May period, but it cannot be determined at this time whether or not this event will decay during the same period. By the middle of the year, La Niña and, what is referred to as ‘neutral conditions’ are considered to be about equally likely, with El Niño continuing to have a low likelihood of occurrence at this stage. Long-term statistics indicate neutral conditions should currently be considered a more likely outcome for the latter part of 2008.
Over the last three months, La Niña conditions have matured and become slightly stronger. Sea surface temperatures are now about 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius colder than average over large parts of the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific. The local atmosphere is strongly coupled to this SST situation, with trade winds strengthened and cloudiness reduced in central and eastern equatorial Pacific region. However, in the far eastern equatorial Pacific near South America, the La Niña conditions are not as strong in the last few weeks.
In 2007, when the La Niña became established, conditions in the western equatorial Pacific, were initially not typical of a La Niña, but over the last three months, they have also become generally consistent with a La Niña event, and sea surface temperatures surrounding northern Australia and into much of the Equatorial western Pacific are about 0.5 degrees Celsius warmer than normal. Basin-wide conditions are therefore now reflecting a La Niña pattern.
There is good agreement amongst forecast models and amongst expert interpretations that the current event is well established and should continue at least through the first quarter of 2008. There is more uncertainty over conditions for the second quarter of the year. However, a rapid decay of the event during March-May, while still possible, is not considered likely, given the current strength of the prevailing ocean sub-surface and atmospheric patterns that are reinforcing La Niña.
Most models indicate a more gradual decay that starts early in the year, but still leaves substantial coolness in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific during the second quarter of the year. Thus, most interpretations suggest that the likelihood of La Niña conditions remains heightened through the second quarter and, at a lower level of confidence, into the first part of the third quarter of 2008. Some models suggest that it is possible that a temporary weakening of the event may begin in the next few weeks, associated with a temporary reversal of atmospheric conditions, but this is not expected by model interpretations to lead to a substantial rapid decay of the event:
At this time, longer-lead seasonal forecasts for time periods beyond the third quarter of 2008 are not considered to contain useful information on the occurrence of La Niña or El Niño. It should be noted that very rarely, a La Niña event will persist for two years or slightly longer, such as occurred from early 1998 to early 2000. However, the likelihood of such a situation developing in this case will remain unclear for some months to come, but will be closely monitored. At this point of time, based on long-term statistics, neutral conditions should be considered a more likely outcome for the latter part of 2008.
This La Niña continues to be in the middle range of La Niña events found in the historical record, although the slight further cooling in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific in the last couple of months will likely place it on the stronger side of the middle range. The event has already influenced climate patterns over the last six months across many parts of the globe, including in the direct vicinity of the equatorial Pacific, as well as more widely, across the Indian Ocean, Asia, Africa, and the Americas.
Users and decision makers in areas with a tendency for anomalous climate patterns during such events should be aware of the expected continued presence of La Niña, but should also continue to recognise that other factors influence seasonal climatic patterns as well. They are therefore encouraged to consult the climate forecasts for their location and consider the appropriate risk management strategies.
The above observations illustrate the need for detailed regional assessment of prevailing conditions and combining expected El Niño/La Niña influences with influences from other geographic regions, to anticipate likely weather patterns regionally and locally over the coming months. Locally applicable information should be consulted in detailed national/regional seasonal climate outlooks, such as those produced by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs).
The situation in the equatorial Pacific will continue to be carefully monitored. More detailed interpretations of regional climate fluctuations will be generated routinely by the climate forecasting community over the coming months and will be made available through National Meteorological and Hydrological Services.
El Niño/La Niña Background
Climate Patterns in the Pacific
Research conducted over recent decades has shed considerable light on the important role played by interactions between the atmosphere and ocean in the tropical belt of the Pacific Ocean in altering global weather and climate patterns. During El Niño events, for example, sea temperatures at the surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become substantially higher than normal.
In contrast, during La Niña events, the sea surface temperatures in these regions become lower than normal. These temperature changes are strongly linked to major climate fluctuations around the globe and, once initiated, such events can last for 12 months or more. The strong El Niño event of 1997-1998 was followed by a prolonged La Niña phase that extended from mid-1998 to early 2001. El Niño/La Niña events change the likelihood of particular climate patterns around the globe, but the outcomes of each event are never exactly the same.
Furthermore, while there is generally a relationship between the global impacts of an El Niño/La Niña event and its intensity, there is always potential for an event to generate serious impacts in some regions irrespective of its intensity.
Forecasting and Monitoring the El Niño/La Niña Phenomenon
The forecasting of Pacific Ocean developments is undertaken in a number of ways. Complex dynamical models project the evolution of the tropical Pacific Ocean from its currently observed state. Statistical forecast models can also capture some of the precursors of such developments. Expert analysis of the current situation adds further value, especially in interpreting the implications of the evolving situation below the ocean surface. All forecast methods try to incorporate the effects of ocean-atmosphere interactions within the climate system.
The meteorological and oceanographic data that allow El Niño and La Niña episodes to be monitored and forecast are drawn from national and international observing systems. The exchange and processing of the data are carried out under programmes coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization.
Map 1: Current La Niña event. Credit: WMO.
Map 2: During cold La Niña episodes the normal patterns of tropical precipitation and atmospheric circulation become disrupted. Credit: NOAA.
References:
WMO: La Niña Conditions Strengthen, Expected to Continue - February 11, 2008.
WMO: La Niña Update - detailed [*.doc] - February 11, 2008.
Article continues
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