WMO: La Niña conditions strengthen, expected to continue

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), drawing on data from a large number of scientific organisations and the international climate forecasting community, has released an El Niño/La Niña update, showing that the current La Niña event is stengthening. During a such an event, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific become cooler than normal. Such cooling has important effects on the global weather, particularly rainfall. While sea surface temperatures cool in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific, those in the west remain warmer. This is associated with increases in the frequency of heavy rain and thunderstorms in surrounding regions.

The event has already influenced climate patterns over the last six months across many parts of the globe, including in the direct vicinity of the equatorial Pacific, as well as more widely, across the Indian Ocean, Asia, Africa, and the Americas. Many economic sectors - from mining and forestry to agriculture, bioenergy, fisheries and transport - can be affected by La Niña. During cold La Niña episodes the normal patterns of tropical precipitation and atmospheric circulation become disrupted (map, click to enlarge).

La Niña conditions, which started in the third quarter of 2007, continue across the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific, the WMO says. Basin-wide features are now typical of the mature stage of a La Niña event, including in the western Equatorial Pacific. The magnitude of the event continues to be in the middle range of those observed in the historical record.

The La Niña event is expected to continue at least through the first quarter of 2008. Many La Niña events in the historical record are found to decay rapidly during the March-May period, but it cannot be determined at this time whether or not this event will decay during the same period. By the middle of the year, La Niña and, what is referred to as ‘neutral conditions’ are considered to be about equally likely, with El Niño continuing to have a low likelihood of occurrence at this stage. Long-term statistics indicate neutral conditions should currently be considered a more likely outcome for the latter part of 2008.

Over the last three months, La Niña conditions have matured and become slightly stronger. Sea surface temperatures are now about 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius colder than average over large parts of the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific. The local atmosphere is strongly coupled to this SST situation, with trade winds strengthened and cloudiness reduced in central and eastern equatorial Pacific region. However, in the far eastern equatorial Pacific near South America, the La Niña conditions are not as strong in the last few weeks.

In 2007, when the La Niña became established, conditions in the western equatorial Pacific, were initially not typical of a La Niña, but over the last three months, they have also become generally consistent with a La Niña event, and sea surface temperatures surrounding northern Australia and into much of the Equatorial western Pacific are about 0.5 degrees Celsius warmer than normal. Basin-wide conditions are therefore now reflecting a La Niña pattern.

There is good agreement amongst forecast models and amongst expert interpretations that the current event is well established and should continue at least through the first quarter of 2008. There is more uncertainty over conditions for the second quarter of the year. However, a rapid decay of the event during March-May, while still possible, is not considered likely, given the current strength of the prevailing ocean sub-surface and atmospheric patterns that are reinforcing La Niña.

Most models indicate a more gradual decay that starts early in the year, but still leaves substantial coolness in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific during the second quarter of the year. Thus, most interpretations suggest that the likelihood of La Niña conditions remains heightened through the second quarter and, at a lower level of confidence, into the first part of the third quarter of 2008. Some models suggest that it is possible that a temporary weakening of the event may begin in the next few weeks, associated with a temporary reversal of atmospheric conditions, but this is not expected by model interpretations to lead to a substantial rapid decay of the event:
energy :: sustainability :: biofuels :: biomass :: bioenergy :: agriculture :: forestry :: mining :: climate :: El Niño :: La Niña ::

At this time, longer-lead seasonal forecasts for time periods beyond the third quarter of 2008 are not considered to contain useful information on the occurrence of La Niña or El Niño. It should be noted that very rarely, a La Niña event will persist for two years or slightly longer, such as occurred from early 1998 to early 2000. However, the likelihood of such a situation developing in this case will remain unclear for some months to come, but will be closely monitored. At this point of time, based on long-term statistics, neutral conditions should be considered a more likely outcome for the latter part of 2008.

This La Niña continues to be in the middle range of La Niña events found in the historical record, although the slight further cooling in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific in the last couple of months will likely place it on the stronger side of the middle range. The event has already influenced climate patterns over the last six months across many parts of the globe, including in the direct vicinity of the equatorial Pacific, as well as more widely, across the Indian Ocean, Asia, Africa, and the Americas.

Users and decision makers in areas with a tendency for anomalous climate patterns during such events should be aware of the expected continued presence of La Niña, but should also continue to recognise that other factors influence seasonal climatic patterns as well. They are therefore encouraged to consult the climate forecasts for their location and consider the appropriate risk management strategies.

The above observations illustrate the need for detailed regional assessment of prevailing conditions and combining expected El Niño/La Niña influences with influences from other geographic regions, to anticipate likely weather patterns regionally and locally over the coming months. Locally applicable information should be consulted in detailed national/regional seasonal climate outlooks, such as those produced by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs).

The situation in the equatorial Pacific will continue to be carefully monitored. More detailed interpretations of regional climate fluctuations will be generated routinely by the climate forecasting community over the coming months and will be made available through National Meteorological and Hydrological Services.


El Niño/La Niña Background
Climate Patterns in the Pacific
Research conducted over recent decades has shed considerable light on the important role played by interactions between the atmosphere and ocean in the tropical belt of the Pacific Ocean in altering global weather and climate patterns. During El Niño events, for example, sea temperatures at the surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become substantially higher than normal.

In contrast, during La Niña events, the sea surface temperatures in these regions become lower than normal. These temperature changes are strongly linked to major climate fluctuations around the globe and, once initiated, such events can last for 12 months or more. The strong El Niño event of 1997-1998 was followed by a prolonged La Niña phase that extended from mid-1998 to early 2001. El Niño/La Niña events change the likelihood of particular climate patterns around the globe, but the outcomes of each event are never exactly the same.

Furthermore, while there is generally a relationship between the global impacts of an El Niño/La Niña event and its intensity, there is always potential for an event to generate serious impacts in some regions irrespective of its intensity.

Forecasting and Monitoring the El Niño/La Niña Phenomenon
The forecasting of Pacific Ocean developments is undertaken in a number of ways. Complex dynamical models project the evolution of the tropical Pacific Ocean from its currently observed state. Statistical forecast models can also capture some of the precursors of such developments. Expert analysis of the current situation adds further value, especially in interpreting the implications of the evolving situation below the ocean surface. All forecast methods try to incorporate the effects of ocean-atmosphere interactions within the climate system.

The meteorological and oceanographic data that allow El Niño and La Niña episodes to be monitored and forecast are drawn from national and international observing systems. The exchange and processing of the data are carried out under programmes coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization.


Map 1: Current La Niña event. Credit: WMO.

Map 2: During cold La Niña episodes the normal patterns of tropical precipitation and atmospheric circulation become disrupted. Credit: NOAA.


References:
WMO: La Niña Conditions Strengthen, Expected to Continue - February 11, 2008.

WMO: La Niña Update - detailed [*.doc] - February 11, 2008.

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FAO unveils important bioenergy assessment tool to ensure food security, shows global biofuels potential

An international team of scientists under the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has unveiled a much needed planning tool that allows countries to tap their bioenergy production potential while ensuring food security. The decision-support tool is based on mathematical models often referred to by Biopact. Peru, Thailand and Tanzania will try it out first, before it is released to the international community. The tool makes the discussion about the biofuels potential and the food versus fuel debate far more rigorous.

Scientists know that the technical potential for the sustainable production of bioenergy and biofuels is very large. Under the QUICKSCAN model, developed by the University of Utrecht's Copernicus Institute, used by the International Energy Agency and now also by the FAO, this potential is estimated to be maximum 1545 Exajoules per year by 2050, the bulk of it found in Africa and Latin America. 1545 EJ is more than 6 times the current amount of petroleum used by the entire world (total global energy demand today is 420EJ/yr, of which around 220EJ comes in the form of oil products).

The QUICKSCAN model, widely recognised as being the most robust and complete analytical framework, takes a bottom-up approach (schematic, click to enlarge) to estimate the sustainable bioenergy production potential. It first calculates and projects all food, fiber, fodder and forest product needs of growing populations, under different population growth scenarios. It then looks at the amount of land left for biofuels and bioenergy. This land base is explicitly taken to be non-forest land (no deforestation allowed) and sets aside land that is protected. It then allocates different crops to different types of land after which a scenario component is introduced reflecting potential yield and land availability increases resulting from agronomical changes.

The end result of the projections is an amount of bioenergy that a given region can produce sustainably over time, while meeting all needs of growing local populations and without damaging the environment. Maximum potential for sub-Saharan Africa is 347 EJ per year by 2050; for South America and the Caribbean 279 EJ, for the C.I.S. and Baltic States 269 EJ (map, click to enlarge). Biopact has consistently based its discussion of the regional and global biofuels opportunity on these assessments and the research papers developed from it (see references).

The tool now developed by a team of economists from FAO, Utrecht University’s Copernicus Institute and Darmstadt’s Oeko-Institut, is based on coupling QUICKSCAN to COSIMO, which models the agricultural sector in a large number of developing countries. The result is the new analytical framework, unveiled at a two-day experts’ meeting of FAO’s Bioenergy and Food Security (BEFS) project, which must make it possible for countries to develop strategies to tap the technical potential and turn it into real potential in a socially sustainable way.

The three-year project, funded by Germany, is aimed at making sure that bioenergy does not impair global food security. The analytical framework allows governments interested in entering the bioenergy sector to calculate the effect of their policy decisions on the food security of their populations.

Bioenergy can affect food prices and rural incomes and thus has important implications – both positive and negative — for food security. Potential negative effects are increased food prices for poor urban populations. Positive effects are the new market opportunities for vast poor rural populations and the increased income derived from these new markets; the capacity to strengthen rural development; and the opportunity to make developing countries less dependent on imported food and petroleum products, which both affect local food production:
energy :: sustainability :: biomass :: bioenergy :: biofuels :: food security :: rural development :: climate change :: UN :: FAO ::

Applying the analytical framework will enable national policy-makers to minimise negative consequences while maximising positive outcomes. A prerequisite for running the framework is the establishment of a bioenergy development scenario, a process in which FAO helps government clearly define their bioenergy policy options and the various possible strategies to achieve those options.

The analytical framework then makes it possible, through five steps, to assess: technical biomass potential; biomass production costs; the economic bioenergy potential; macro-economic consequences; national and household-level impact and consequences on food security:

Analysis of the results will make it possible to determine actual bioenergy potential and which households are most vulnerable and thus at risk of food insecurity.

The model draws on existing mathematical modelling tools such as QUICKSCAN, which calculates global bioenergy potential to 2050, and FAO’s COSIMO, which models the agricultural sector in a large number of developing countries.

The framework will be field-tested in three countries – Peru, Thailand and Tanzania – before the analytical framework methodology is made available to the international community at large.

Alexander Müller, FAO assistant director-general for natural resources and the environment, said FAO would make every effort to ensure that food security issues are on the table when a successor to the present Kyoto Protocol is negotiated.

Müller said climate change could reduce yields from the main crops in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa by up to 40 percent in the next 25 years, notably in Southern Africa. In other parts such as Eastern Africa and the Sahel yields could increase by up to 20 percent. But food security is not part of the negotiations road map adopted at last December’s UN Conference in Bali, and this hiatus must be taken into account.

The challenge will be huge for sub-Saharan Africa, Mr Muller said, adding that according to experts the development of the bioenergy sector in Africa could help mitigate the effects of climate change there.

FAO is organizing a High Level Conference on World Food Security and the Challenges of Climate Change and Bioenergy in Rome from 3 to 5 June.

References:
FAO: FAO unveils new bioenergy assessment tool - February 11, 2008.

FAO Natural Resources Management and Environment Department: FAO Climate Change and Bioenergy Unit.

IEA Bioenergy Executive Committee: Potential Contribution of Bioenergy to the World's Future Energy Demand - September 2007.

The Quickscan model has resulted in a large number of important research reports and papers about the global and regional bioenergy potential. The model is widely applied by researchers who work for the International Energy Agency Bioenergy Task 40, which analyses global biomass potential and trade.

Some of the most widely quoted (only from the Copernicus Institute's researchers) are:

Edward M.W. Smeets, André P.C. Faaij, Iris M. Lewandowski, Wim C. Turkenburg, A quickscan of global bio-energy potentials to 2050. Progress in Energy and Combustion Science, Volume 33, Issue 1, February 2007, Pages 56-106

Andre Faaij (2007), Global Outlook on Development of Sustainable Biomass Resource Potentials [*.pdf], First Conference of the European Biomass Co-Firing Network, Budapest, Hungary, July 2007.

M. Hoogwijk, A. Faaij, R. van den Broek, G. Berndes, D. Gielen, W. Turkenburg, Exploration of the ranges of the global potential of biomass for energy. Biomass and Bioenergy, Vol. 25 No.2, 2003, pp. 119-133.

Hoogwijk, M., Faaij, A., Eickhout, B., de Vries, B. and Turkenburg, W. 2005a. Potential of biomass energy out to 2100, for four IPCC SRES land-use scenarios, Biomass & Bioenergy, Vol. 29, Issue 4, October, Pp. 225-257.

C. Hamelinck, A. Faaij, H. den Uil, H. Boerrigter, Production of FT transportation fuels from biomass; technical options, process analysis and optimisation and development potential. Energy, the International Journal, Vol. 29, No. 11, September 2004, Pp. 1743-1771

Carlo N. Hamelinck, Geertje van Hooijdonk, André P.C. Faaij, Future prospects for the production of ethanol from ligno-cellulosic biomass. Biomass & Bioenergy, Vol. 28, Issue 4, April 2005, Pages 384-410

Carlo N. Hamelinck, Roald A.A. Suurs, André P.C. Faaij, Techno-economic analysis of International Bio-energy Trade Chains. Biomass & Bioenergy, Vol. 29, Issue 2, August 2005, Pages 114-134

Monique Hoogwijk, André Faaij, Bas Eickhout, Bert de Vries, Wim Turkenburg, Potential of biomass energy out to 2100, for four IPCC SRES land-use scenarios, Biomass & Bioenergy, Vol. 29, Issue 4, October 2005, Pages 225-257.

André P.C. Faaij, Bio-energy in Europe: Changing technology choices. Energy Policy (Special Issue on Renewable Energy in Europe), Vol 34/3, February 2006, Pp. 322-342

I. Lewandowski, A. Faaij, Steps towards the development of a certification system for sustainable bio-energy trade, Biomass & Bio-energy, Volume 30, Issue 2, February 2006, Pages 83-104

Bothwell Batidzirai, André Faaij, Edward Smeets, Biomass and bioenergy supply from Mozambique, Energy for Sustainable Development, Vol X. No.1, March 2006. Pp. 54-81

Andre P.C. Faaij, Julije Domac, Emerging international bio-energy markets and opportunities for socio-economic development, Energy for Sustainable Development, Vol X. No.1, March 2006. Pp. 7-19

K. Damen, A. Faaij, A Greenhouse gas balance of two existing international biomass import chains; the case of residue co-firing in a pulverised coal-fired power plant in the Netherlands Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change (Special Issue), Volume 11, Number 5-6, September 2006, Pp. 1023-1050.

Junginger, M., Faaij, A., Rosillo-Calle, F., Wood, J., The growing role of biofuels - Opportunities, challenges and pitfalls, International Sugar Journal, Volume 108, Issue 1295, November 2006, Pages 618-629

C. Hamelinck, A.Faaij, Outlook for advanced biofuels. Energy Policy, Vol. 34, Issue 17, November 2006, Pages 3268-3283

M. Junginger, E. de Visser, K. Hjort-Gregersen, J. Koornneef, R. Raven, A. Faaij, W.C. Turkenburg Technological learning in bio-energy systems. Energy Policy, Volume 34, Issue 18, December 2006, Pages 4024-4041

V. Dornburg, J. van Dam, A. Faaij, Estimating GHG emission mitigation supply curves of large scale biomass use on a country level (In Press: Biomass & Bioenergy, 2006)

E. Smeets, A. Faaij, Bioenergy potentials from forestry to 2050 (In press: Climatic Change, 2006).

J. van Dam, A. Faaij, I. Lewandowski, G. Fischer, Biomass production potentials in Central and Eastern Europe under different scenario’s. (In Press: Biomass & Bioenergy)

Martijn Verdonk, Carel Dieperink, André Faaij, Governance of the emerging bio-energy markets (In Press: Energy Policy)

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Indian sugar producer cogenerates 56MW of biomass power; obtains carbon credits under CDM

One of India's largest sugar producers, Dwarikesh Sugar Industries Ltd, has announced it started producing electricity from biomass at two plants in Fardipur in Bareilly district, and in Afzalgarh, Bijnore District, Uttar Pradesh. As a result of a €39/$56.7 million investment, the company will be able to supply more than 24 MW of green power to the Uttar Pradesh Power Corp Ltd (UPPCL), and fully meet its own power requirements. Besides sugar production, Dwarikesh now has a capacity to generate 56MW of renewable energy as well as 10.95 million liters/year of ethanol from molasses. The cogeneration project is registered under the UN's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).

By diversifying into green energy and biofuels, the project is seen as a major strategy to combat adverse cyclic conditions and uncertainties impacting the sugar industry. So-called 'flex-factories' (precursors to full fledged 'biorefineries') allow for the utilization of residues in the most optimal way, depending on prevailing market conditions, and guarantee multiple revenue streams.

The commencement of the cogeneration plants and their registration with UNFCCC adds an exciting dimension to the growth story of our group. The past one year has been very difficult and it required concerted effort on the part of all concerned within the organization and support and help of all our business associates to survive and beat the adversity. However the worst is behind us and we look forward to sustained growth and exciting times in future. - Vijay S Banka, CFO, Dwarikesh Sugar Industries

Announcing the start of the project today to the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), the company said the cogeneration project was brought online on the 3rd February, when at its Dwarikesh Puram (DP) plant in Afzalgarh, Bijnore District, the power generation turbine was synchronized with the grid of UPPCL.

Power evacuation is 20 megawatts initially and will be gradually stepped up to achieve its rated capacity of 24 Megawatts. Power generated will be renewable and carbon neutral, as it will be generated from bagasse, the abundant biomass residue obtained from processing sugarcane. The project is registered with UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its CDM for the generation of Carbon Emission Reductions (CERs), which the company will now be able to sell.

The Dwarikesh Dham plant in Fardipur, Bareilly district is an encore of the DP plant in Afzalgarh and will also use biomass for power generation. It is equipped to supply more than 24 megawatts of green power to the grid of UPPCL. Power purchase agreements (PPA) are already executed with UPPCL for power supplies from these units for the next 20 years:
energy :: sustainability :: biomass :: bioenergy :: biofuels :: ethanol :: bagasse :: sugarcane :: cogeneration :: renewable :: climate change :: certified emission reductions :: Clean Development Mechanism :: Uttar Pradesh :: India ::

The company is now equipped to export 56 megawatts of green power besides meeting all its captive requirements. Commencement of these projects are seen as 'giant steps' in the direction of optimizing use of byproducts and in combating adverse cyclic conditions impacting the sugar industry.

In the execution of above projects high pressure boilers & sophisticated turbines involving the latest technology and investment in excess of INR 225 crores (€39/$56.7 million) were deployed. The commencement of these projects would usher in a new era in the history of the company as new dimension will be added to the business model based on multiple streams of revenue, each contributing significantly to the top-line and the bottom-line. The move is paradigm shift in the business model of the company: from a business entity that originally made only sugar it has now transformed in to an entity producing fuels and green energy.

The company now has state of art facility to crush 21,500 metric tons of sugarcane every day, export 56 megawatts of power every hour and produce and sell 30,000 liters of ethanol/industrial alcohol everyday.

India is the second largest sugar producer in the world, with the state of Uttar Pradesh taking the bulk of the share (map, click to enlarge). The country has a substantial potential for the production of green electricity from bagasse and agricultural residues. Under its 11th Plan period (2007-2012), the government of India recently announced it aims to add 1,700 MW capacity through biomass and bagasse cogeneration in various states, including Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. The target consists of 500 MW from biomass projects and 1,200 MW from projects based on utilizing bagasse (previous post).

The total technical bioenergy potential from residues and energy crops in India is estimated to be around 66,880MW, more than wind, solar and small hydro combined (table, click to enlarge). In order to turn this potential efficiently into energy, an inter-ministerial initiative was recently launched: the production of a detailed atlas to accurately asses the nation-wide biomass resource base, including agricultural residues suitable for conversion into energy, which must allow the planning of the most optimal use of the resource (previous post).

Dwarikesh Group is a fast growing industrial group consisting of companies having a strong presence in diverse fields such as sugar manufacturing, financial services and information technology. The group's flagship company, Dwarikesh Sugar Industries Limited, is headquartered at Mumbai. The company's plants are located in Bijnor district of Uttar Pradesh, at Dwarikeshnagar (Najibabad) and Dwarikeshpuram (Afzalgarh). The company expects to commission its third plant by the beginning of the sugar season of 2007-08.

References:
Dwarikesh: Giant steps in the direction of power generation - February 11, 2008.

Biopact: India to add 1700MW of biomass co-generation by 2012; 18,000MW potential from agro-residues - December 07, 2007

Biopact: India prepares 'Biomass Atlas' to map and tap bioenergy potential - November 26, 2007

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U.S. EPA raises biofuel target for 2008 to 7.76 percent

The United States' Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is raising the 2008 renewable fuels standard (RFS), which determines how much non-petroleum fuel will power America's vehicle, to 7.76 percent. The move is in response to the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA), which President Bush signed in December (previous post). The target for 2008 is considerably higher than that set by the EU for 2010 (5.75 percent).

The RFS program creates new markets for farm products, increases energy security, and promotes the development of advanced technologies that would expand the production of renewable fuels. - U.S. Environmental Protecion Agency

Last November, EPA announced a RFS of 4.66 percent, based on previous law, that mandated at least 5.4 billion gallons (20.4bn liters) of renewable fuels be blended into the nation's transportation fuels this year. However, EPA is now increasing the standard to 7.76 percent to comply with the new minimum of 9.0 billion gallons (34bn liters) of renewable fuel that EISA requires.

EISA increases the overall volume of renewable fuels that must be blended each year, reaching 36 billion gallons (136bn liters) in 2022. To achieve these volumes, EPA annually calculates the percentage-based standard, which applies to refiners, importers and non-oxygenate blenders of gasoline.

Based on the standard, each of these parties determines the minimum volume of renewable fuel that it must use:
energy :: sustainability :: biomass :: bioenergy :: biofuels :: ethanol :: biodiesel :: renewable fuels standard :: EPA :: United States ::

Last December, the U.S. chose to become a biofuel nation, by approving a bill that increases the RFS to 36 billion gallons (136 billion liters) by 2022, roughly the equivalent of between 1.8 and 2 million barrels of oil per day. Of that, corn ethanol production is capped at 15 billion gallons per year starting in 2015 (56.8 billion liters), a three-fold increase of current production levels; the remainder is expected provided by 'advanced biofuels', the majority of which are cellulosic biofuels. In the final year of the standard (2022), cellulosic biofuels should contribute more (16 billion gallons) than does corn ethanol (15 billion gallons) (graph, click to enlarge).

The law assigns minimum lifecycle greenhouse gas improvements, measured against a baseline of the lifecycle emissions from gasoline or diesel (whichever is being replaced) on sale in 2005. The minimum GHG improvement is 20%; biomass-based diesel must deliver a 50% GHG improvement, and cellulosic biofuels must deliver a 60% improvement in lifecycle GHG emissions.

The European Commission for its part proposes a biofuel target of 10 percent by 2020, as presented in its recent climate and energy package (previous post).

References:
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: More Renewable Fuel Headed for Your Tank - February 8, 2008.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: Renewable Fuel Standard Program.

Biopact: US becomes biofuel nation as Congress approves Energy Bill - December 19, 2007

Biopact: EU Commission presents climate and renewable energy package - January 23, 2008

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