Study: emissions from road transport to make up 75% of all man-made traffic emissions over the next century
According to researchers from the Oslo-based Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO), road traffic is by large the transport sector that contributes most to global warming. Aviation has the second largest warming effect, while shipping has a net cooling effect on the earth’s climate, they write in an open access study published recently in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).
Since pre-industrial times, road traffic has contributed around 15% of all man-made CO2 emissions and takes a two-third share of all emissions from transport. But looking at the effects of today’s road emissions on future climate, the researchers predict the share to grow to 75% of the warming caused by transport over the next hundred years. Road transport should therefor be a clear priority for the implementation of green policies that reduce emissions, the researchers say.
The analysis gives some credence to the European Commission's rationale for its 10% target for biofuels: there is no alternative to oil for road transport, as (bio-)electric or (bio-)hydrogen transport systems are not available yet. Biofuels offer the only way to tackle emissions from transport today. Obviously, as much effort as possible should be invested into stimulating the use of low carbon public transport and into transporting goods via rail and waterway. However, this is not likely to make as major a difference as introducing biofuels in the much larger sector of personal, individual road transport.
The new study, “Climate forcing from the transport sectors”, is the first comprehensive analysis of the climate effect from the transport sector as a whole on a global scale. Breaking down the transport sector to four subsectors: road transport, aviation, rail, and shipping, five researchers at CICERO have calculated each subsector’s contribution to global warming. The researchers have looked at the radiative forcing (RF) caused by transport emissions. The RF describes the warming effect in the unit Watt per square meter (W/m2).
Road transport
The study concludes that since preindustrial times, 15% of the RF caused by man-made CO2-emissions have come from the transport sector (graph, click to enlarge). The study also looks at other emissions. For ozon (O3), transport can be blamed for ca 30% of the forcing caused by man-made emissions.
The study implies that more attention needs to be put on the fast growing road sector. Looking solely at CO2 emissions, road traffic alone has led to two-thirds of the warming caused by total transport emissions (this is using a historical perspective looking at emissions since pre-industrial times.) Including all gasses, not just CO2, and looking at the effect today’s road emissions has on future climate, the share is even larger: the road emissions of today will constitute three-fourth of the warming caused by transport over the next hundred years.
Shipping
For shipping, the picture is more complicated. Until today, shipping has had a cooling effect on climate. This is because shipping emits large portions of the gasses SO2 and NOx, which both have cooling effects. However, although these two gases, until now, have given the shipping industry a cooling effect, this effect will diminish after a while, as the gases don’t live long in the atmosphere. After a few decades, the long-lived CO2 will dominate, giving shipping a warming effect in the long run:
energy :: sustainability :: biomass :: bioenergy :: biofuels :: emissions :: transport :: road :: shipping :: aviation :: climate change ::
The net cooling effect from shipping does not imply that shipping emissions don’t need to be cut back on. Both SO2 and NOx have other impacts that damage the environment.
A remark can be made here saying that SO2 and NOx are not covered by the Kyoto Protocol; neither is black carbon (soot). Therefore, the Protocol is too narrow to capture the real climate effect of transport emissions, particularly for the shipping sector.
Aviation
Following road transport, aviation is the second largest transport contributor to global warming. The reason that road transport tops the list is mainly the amount of vehicles on the roads and the smaller cooling effect from their emissions. The researchers have not yet looked at emissions per kilometre or per person at a certain distance using different transport modes.
Also, aviation has a strong contribution to global warming. However, the historical contribution from aviation emissions to global warming is more than doubled by the contribution from road emissions. Over the next 100 years, today’s road emissions will have a climate effect that is four times higher than the climate effect from today’s aviation emissions.
Rail
The warming effect by rail emissions is very small, almost not noticable at all, compared to the effects from road transport and aviation.
In general, the transport sector’s contribution to global warming will be continously high in the future. The current emissions from transport are responsible for approximately 16% of the net radiative forcing over the next 100 years. The dominating contributor to this warming is CO2, followed by tropospheric O3.
Graph: Historical development in emissions and radiative forcing for CO2 from the transport sector. (A) Development in CO2 emissions from the various transport subsectors and the fraction (right axis) of total man-made CO2 emissions (excluding land use changes). (B) Development in RF due to CO2 from these sectors.
References:
Jan Fuglestvedt, Terje Berntsen, Gunnar Myhre, Kristin Rypdal, and Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie. "Climate Forcing from the Transport Sectors" [open access], PNAS 10.1073/pnas.0702958104, 7 January 2008.
CICERO: Cars Warm Up, Ships Cool Down - January 24, 2008.
Article continues
Since pre-industrial times, road traffic has contributed around 15% of all man-made CO2 emissions and takes a two-third share of all emissions from transport. But looking at the effects of today’s road emissions on future climate, the researchers predict the share to grow to 75% of the warming caused by transport over the next hundred years. Road transport should therefor be a clear priority for the implementation of green policies that reduce emissions, the researchers say.
The analysis gives some credence to the European Commission's rationale for its 10% target for biofuels: there is no alternative to oil for road transport, as (bio-)electric or (bio-)hydrogen transport systems are not available yet. Biofuels offer the only way to tackle emissions from transport today. Obviously, as much effort as possible should be invested into stimulating the use of low carbon public transport and into transporting goods via rail and waterway. However, this is not likely to make as major a difference as introducing biofuels in the much larger sector of personal, individual road transport.
The new study, “Climate forcing from the transport sectors”, is the first comprehensive analysis of the climate effect from the transport sector as a whole on a global scale. Breaking down the transport sector to four subsectors: road transport, aviation, rail, and shipping, five researchers at CICERO have calculated each subsector’s contribution to global warming. The researchers have looked at the radiative forcing (RF) caused by transport emissions. The RF describes the warming effect in the unit Watt per square meter (W/m2).
Road transport
The study concludes that since preindustrial times, 15% of the RF caused by man-made CO2-emissions have come from the transport sector (graph, click to enlarge). The study also looks at other emissions. For ozon (O3), transport can be blamed for ca 30% of the forcing caused by man-made emissions.
The study implies that more attention needs to be put on the fast growing road sector. Looking solely at CO2 emissions, road traffic alone has led to two-thirds of the warming caused by total transport emissions (this is using a historical perspective looking at emissions since pre-industrial times.) Including all gasses, not just CO2, and looking at the effect today’s road emissions has on future climate, the share is even larger: the road emissions of today will constitute three-fourth of the warming caused by transport over the next hundred years.
Shipping
For shipping, the picture is more complicated. Until today, shipping has had a cooling effect on climate. This is because shipping emits large portions of the gasses SO2 and NOx, which both have cooling effects. However, although these two gases, until now, have given the shipping industry a cooling effect, this effect will diminish after a while, as the gases don’t live long in the atmosphere. After a few decades, the long-lived CO2 will dominate, giving shipping a warming effect in the long run:
energy :: sustainability :: biomass :: bioenergy :: biofuels :: emissions :: transport :: road :: shipping :: aviation :: climate change ::
The net cooling effect from shipping does not imply that shipping emissions don’t need to be cut back on. Both SO2 and NOx have other impacts that damage the environment.
A remark can be made here saying that SO2 and NOx are not covered by the Kyoto Protocol; neither is black carbon (soot). Therefore, the Protocol is too narrow to capture the real climate effect of transport emissions, particularly for the shipping sector.
Aviation
Following road transport, aviation is the second largest transport contributor to global warming. The reason that road transport tops the list is mainly the amount of vehicles on the roads and the smaller cooling effect from their emissions. The researchers have not yet looked at emissions per kilometre or per person at a certain distance using different transport modes.
Also, aviation has a strong contribution to global warming. However, the historical contribution from aviation emissions to global warming is more than doubled by the contribution from road emissions. Over the next 100 years, today’s road emissions will have a climate effect that is four times higher than the climate effect from today’s aviation emissions.
Rail
The warming effect by rail emissions is very small, almost not noticable at all, compared to the effects from road transport and aviation.
In general, the transport sector’s contribution to global warming will be continously high in the future. The current emissions from transport are responsible for approximately 16% of the net radiative forcing over the next 100 years. The dominating contributor to this warming is CO2, followed by tropospheric O3.
Graph: Historical development in emissions and radiative forcing for CO2 from the transport sector. (A) Development in CO2 emissions from the various transport subsectors and the fraction (right axis) of total man-made CO2 emissions (excluding land use changes). (B) Development in RF due to CO2 from these sectors.
References:
Jan Fuglestvedt, Terje Berntsen, Gunnar Myhre, Kristin Rypdal, and Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie. "Climate Forcing from the Transport Sectors" [open access], PNAS 10.1073/pnas.0702958104, 7 January 2008.
CICERO: Cars Warm Up, Ships Cool Down - January 24, 2008.
Article continues
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Aker Kvaerner on track to build world's first carbon-negative power plant
Under the transferral, Aker Kvaerner will own 30% of the shares in Aker Clean carbon, while Aker ASA will own 70%. Aker Kvaerner will also be responsible for supplying engineering and construction for future CO2 capture facilities. Aker Clean Carbon, in an agreement with the Norwegian government, will complete its first plant at the 420 MW gas power plant at Kårstø on the West Coast of Norway.
The new NOK 725 million (€90/US$133 million) CO2 capture unit at Kårstø will be completed in 2009. The plant will have a capacity to remove 100,000 metric tons of CO2 annually from exhaust gases. Operating costs are estimated at NOK 150 million (€18.7/US$27.5 million) over a three-year period. In its first years in operation, until a public system for transportation and storage of CO2 is in place, Aker Clean Carbon will release the captured CO2 to the atmosphere.
The revolution: going carbon-negative
Meanwhile, Aker Kvaerner has been developing its revolutionary version of the Just Catch technology that uses biomass to produce the energy needed for CO2 capture, instead of fossil energy (previous post). The scrubbing plant would normally use energy from the power station. But by scrubbing both the power station’s flue gases and those from the bioenergy plant, the scrubber will also remove atmospheric CO2 — CO2 that the biomass drew from the atmosphere will be geosequestered, thus yielding negative emissions.
This solution, known as Just Catch Bio (schematic, click to enlarge), is potentially capable of removing 116 per cent of the CO2 emissions from a gas-fired power station. The technology will be tested by Aker Clean Carbon in what would be the world's first truly carbon-negative power plant (Just Catch Bio video here).
This is, however, only a first step towards full biomass-fired power stations coupled to CCS, which can remove large quantities of CO2 from the atmosphere. No other energy system is capable of this. All other renewables - wind, solar, hydro, geothermal - and even nuclear are all carbon-neutral at best, slightly carbon-positive in practise (see table). That is,they generate modest amounts of CO2 emissions during their lifecycle. Carbon-negative bioenergy on the contrary goes much further. It actively cleans up the atmosphere.
Scientists from the Abrupt Climate Change Strategy group, who studied such carbon-negative bioenergy systems in-depth, have found that when we were to replace coal and gas with such systems on a global scale, we could return the atmosphere to its pre-industrial CO2 levels by mid-century. In other words, biomass coupled to CCS can cool the planet more than any other technology imaginable. It can do so without the risks attached to far-fetched geo-engineering options.
Carbon-negative bioenergy may appear to be counter-intuitive, because the more we were to use electricity and heat from such systems, the more CO2 we would be taking out of the atmosphere. Consuming more would help fight climate change. Likewise, an electric or hydrogen car that were to utilize this type of bio-electricity or biohydrogen would actively be cleaning up the atmosphere each time you were to drive it... (welcome to the strange world of carbon negative bioenergy). You would not merely be "reducing" CO2 emissions to 100, 80, 50 or 0 grams per kilometer. No, you would be going beyond that, and would be generating -30 or -50 grams per kilometer (yes, that is: minus). In short, each time you were to drive the car, you would be helping the fight against global warming. Clearly, the concept of carbon-negative energy is not yet known by a larger public, because it is relatively new and strange. Mainstream media are uncomfortable with it. But initiatives like Aker Kvaerner's will change that:
energy :: sustainability :: biomass :: bioenergy :: biofuels :: biohydrogen :: carbon capture and storage :: bio-energy with carbon storage :: negative emissions :: climate change :: global warming ::
Parallel to the construction of the first carbon capture plant, potentially with the Just Catch Bio system, Aker Clean Carbon will work closely with the SINTEF research center and the Norwegian Institute of Technology (NTNU) in Trondheim concerning their efforts to develop new and improved aqueous amine solutions. Aker Clean Carbon is participating actively in the development work, and will also contribute funding to this development project, which has a total budget framework of about NOK 250 million (US$46 million) over an eight-year period.
More effective amine scrubbing solutions can be a factor that helps cut investment and operating costs for CO2 capture facilities installed at industrial sites and electric power generation plants even further.
In recent years, Aker Kvaerner and Aker have worked intensively on developing new CO2 capture technology. The main purpose of the new Kårstø plant is the development of construction methods and effective execution models that make carbon sequestration so inexpensive that it becomes cheaper to clean emissions than to pollute.
Biopact has reported often on the radical concept of carbon-negative bioenergy and biofuels; on the development of carbon capture technologies needed to make these systems a reality; on the costs of BECS and the biomass fuel for such systems; on potential applications and risks. Some references are listed below.
References:
Aker Kvaerner: Expands CO2 capturing business - January 24, 2008.
Aker Clean Carbon: Invests close to a billion kroner in pioneering carbon capture facility [*.pdf] - January 24, 2008.
Aker Kvaerner: Just Catch CO2 Capture Technology [*.pdf]
Aker Clean Carbon.
Biopact: Carbon-negative bioenergy recognized as Norwegian CO2 actors join forces to develop carbon capture technologies - October 24, 2007
Scientific literature on negative emissions from biomass:
H. Audus and P. Freund, "Climate Change Mitigation by Biomass Gasificiation Combined with CO2 Capture and Storage", IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme.
James S. Rhodesa and David W. Keithb, "Engineering economic analysis of biomass IGCC with carbon capture and storage", Biomass and Bioenergy, Volume 29, Issue 6, December 2005, Pages 440-450.
Noim Uddin and Leonardo Barreto, "Biomass-fired cogeneration systems with CO2 capture and storage", Renewable Energy, Volume 32, Issue 6, May 2007, Pages 1006-1019, doi:10.1016/j.renene.2006.04.009
Christian Azar, Kristian Lindgren, Eric Larson and Kenneth Möllersten, "Carbon Capture and Storage From Fossil Fuels and Biomass – Costs and Potential Role in Stabilizing the Atmosphere", Climatic Change, Volume 74, Numbers 1-3 / January, 2006, DOI 10.1007/s10584-005-3484-7
Further reading on negative emissions bioenergy and biofuels:
Peter Read and Jonathan Lermit, "Bio-Energy with Carbon Storage (BECS): a Sequential Decision Approach to the threat of Abrupt Climate Change", Energy, Volume 30, Issue 14, November 2005, Pages 2654-2671.
Stefan Grönkvist, Kenneth Möllersten, Kim Pingoud, "Equal Opportunity for Biomass in Greenhouse Gas Accounting of CO2 Capture and Storage: A Step Towards More Cost-Effective Climate Change Mitigation Regimes", Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Volume 11, Numbers 5-6 / September, 2006, DOI 10.1007/s11027-006-9034-9
Biopact: Commission supports carbon capture & storage - negative emissions from bioenergy on the horizon - January 23, 2008
Biopact: The strange world of carbon-negative bioenergy: the more you drive your car, the more you tackle climate change - October 29, 2007
Biopact: "A closer look at the revolutionary coal+biomass-to-liquids with carbon storage project" - September 13, 2007
Biopact: New plastic-based, nano-engineered CO2 capturing membrane developed - September 19, 2007
Biopact: Plastic membrane to bring down cost of carbon capture - August 15, 2007
Biopact: Pre-combustion CO2 capture from biogas - the way forward? - March 31, 2007
Biopact: Towards carbon-negative biofuels: US DOE awards $66.7 million for large-scale CO2 capture and storage from ethanol plant - December 19, 2007
Biopact: EU launches DECARBit project to research advanced pre-combustion CO2 capture from power plants - November 21, 2007
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posted by Biopact team at 10:53 PM 0 comments links to this post