China: poverty reduction, energy security more important than capping emissions

People in the wealthy post-industrialised world tend to forget that for developing nations access to abundant and cheap energy resources is crucial in the fight against poverty. Westerners often hope these countries can somehow skip the polluting fossil fuel path which turned Europe, the US and Japan into prosperous regions, 'leapfrog' into a greener, far more efficient and low carbon future, and fight poverty in the process. But is this is a highly idealistic, very tall order indeed.

The economies of developing countries are energy intensive, and without energy security and affordable fuels, all efforts at social development are in vain. We are already seeing the truly catastrophic socio-economic effects of high oil prices on the poorest countries, some of which are now forced to spend up to six times more on importing oil than on health care and poverty alleviation (previous post). Asking such countries to make energy even more expensive by putting a carbon tax on fossil fuels or by capping emissions in order to fight climate change would be unacceptable to many of them. In fact, some energy experts have warned that in the medium term, high energy prices could indeed be more threatening to societies than climate change (more here).

A Chinese top official, Vice Foreign Minister Zhang Yesui, made this crystal clear by saying Beijing will reject binding caps on greenhouse gas emissions at the UNFCCC's global meeting in Bali next month, because developing countries must be allowed to use more energy and consequently raise emissions to fight poverty.

Climate change is caused mainly by developed countries. They should have the main responsibility for climate change and to reduce emissions. [...] Most developing countries are in the process of industrialization and urbanization, and they face the arduous task of poverty reduction. This is why they need a large period of time for continuous energy demand growth with the growth of greenhouse gas emissions. - Vice Foreign Minister Zhang Yesui

China is about to become the world's top greenhouse-gas producer, even though its per capita emissions are still only 35% of the OECD average. However, the People's Republic's stunning economic growth means it will be responsible for the major share in emissions growth over the coming decades, the International Energy Agency said in its World Energy Outlook released earlier this week. The agency projects that in a business as usual scenario, global CO2 emissions will jump from 27 gigatonnes in 2005 to 42 Gt in 2030, with China alone accounting for 42% of the increase. In a high growth scenario, this share will increase to a whopping 49%, more than the rest of the world combined (except India) (graph, click to enlarge, and previous post).

Succesfully fighting climate change will obviously be impossible without China committing to major cuts in emissions. This is why the country is under immense pressure to accept binding limits at a meeting in Indonesia of environment ministers from 80 nations to discuss a possible replacement to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol on emission reductions. Nations agreed in Kyoto to cut output of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases to below 1990 levels by 2012. But China, India and other developing economies are exempt:
sustainability :: biomass :: bioenergy :: biofuels :: climate change :: greenhouse gas emissions :: fossil fuels :: poverty alleviation :: energy :: Kyoto Protocol :: UNFCCC :: China ::

Vice Foreign Minister Zhang did not say directly what Beijing's position would be at the key meeting in Bali, and he did not take questions from reporters. But a European Union official who met this week with Chinese leaders said they told him in private meetings that Beijing could not accept any binding obligations.

Zhang was speaking at a ceremony to launch a fund to channel money from emissions-reduction credits into environmental projects. The fund will collect a share of Chinese companies' revenues under a system that allows industries in developed economies to offset pollution by paying others to reduce emissions. Beijing has promoted that system among its companies while resisting emissions caps.

Despite its refusal to back binding reduction targets, China has also announced an ambitious plan to promote low carbon renewables, with the bulk of the proposed funding going to hydropower projects. These remain controversial. Biomass and wind power receive a far smaller share. The overall aim of the plan is to meet 15 per cent of the country's energy demand by renewables in 2020 (earlier post).

However, given the sheer pace and scale of China's growth and the coal intensive energy mix which drives this development, such an ambitious renewables policy would have only a marginal effect on offsetting the vast amounts of greenhouse gases it will be releasing over the coming decades.

Economic growth and poverty alleviation versus the fight against climate change. The wealthy countries, whose economies have become less and less energy intensive and who can afford the cost of reducing emissions, do not think there is such a dilemma. But for developing countries, and for China in particular, there is indeed a sharp conflict between these two demands. China has decided to prioritize the first over the latter. And the consequences of this choice will affect all of us.

Perhaps there is only one development on which the world can pin its hopes for turning this situation around, and that is a dramatic increase in prices for both oil and coal, followed by a long and global economic slowdown, and a massive, fast, radical and continued investment in renewables, conservation and energy efficiency.

Graph: projection of China's increasing share in the growth of greenhouse gas emissions from 2005 to 2030. Credit: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2007.

References:
Associated Press: China Signals Rejection of Emission Caps - November 10, 2007.

Biopact: IEA WEO: China and India transform global energy landscape - demand, emissions to grow 'inexorably' - November 08, 2007

Biopact: China unveils $265 billion renewable energy plan, aims for 15% renewables by 2020 - September 06, 2007

Biopact: High oil prices disastrous for developing countries - September 12, 2007

Biopact: Energy experts: high oil prices bigger threat than climate change - October 29, 2007