Cuban livestock farmers are buying distillers dried grains (DDG), the main byproduct of ethanol, from biofuel producers in the U.S. During a trade mission of Iowan officials to Cuba, trade officials there said the communist state will double its purchases of the dried grains this year.
Petrobras: ethanol sales to exceed gasoline in Brazil by 2020, Petrobras to shrink oil business to focus on biofuels
Across most of Brazil, ethanol made from sugar cane is considerably cheaper than gasoline on an energy equivalent basis. Record sugar harvests and ethanol output combined with very high oil prices have tilted the balance firmly in favor of the biofuel. The effect can be felt throughout the economy, as cheap ethanol has contributed to lowering inflation (earlier post). Moreover, as a highly efficient and environmentally sustainable biofuel, Brazilian ethanol is not confronted with the food versus fuel dilemma. In fact, world sugar prices have been falling despite record ethanol output (more here).
In theory, Brazil has the agro-ecological resources to produce enough biofuels to meet the entire world's gasoline demand (here). But some experts counter-intuitively fear abundant and cheap ethanol is becoming a problem for Brazil, as oversupplies cannot be absorbed fast enough by the local market. To avoid becoming a victim of its own success, the country must therefor urgently succeed in opening export markets (earlier post).
Petrobras wants to contribute to this effort. The company expects to become the first major oil producer to shift its core activities away from oil to open the era of bio-based fuels that can be grown over and over again. According to Gabrielli Petrobras is already 'announcing the shrinking' of its business of selling oil products.
Flex-fuel cars were introduced by major carmakers in Brazil in 2003, but sales have shot up spectacularly and now represent 85% of all new car sales (earlier post for 2006 figures). By 2020, Petrobras expects flex-fuel cars to make up 71.5% of Brazil's light-vehicle fleet, up from 12.8% in 2006. The fleet of gasoline cars is headed in the opposite direction, and is expected to shrink to 13.4% from 70.8% in the same period:
energy :: sustainability :: biomass :: bioenergy :: biofuels :: biodiesel :: ethanol :: sugarcane :: flex-fuel :: bi-fuel :: tri-fuel :: Considering a likely continuation of price advantages for ethanol in the Brazilian market, ethanol will represent 57% of the consumption of flex-fuel cars in 2020, Gabrielli added.
The company recently said it plans to enter ethanol production and will buy stakes in up to 40 Brazilian ethanol mills. The company has already laid out plans to become a major ethanol exporter. Recently it commenced implementing its long term plan's first phase by investing in 20 new ethanol plants (earlier post).
Brazil is the world's second-largest producer of ethanol behind the U.S., and is the world's largest exporter. It also has the highest usage of biofuels of any country, accounting for almost 18% of liquid transport fuel needs, Energy Minster Nelson Hubner said Thursday.
Petrobras expects Brazil to consume 29.6 billion liters of ethanol in 2020, up from 12.5 billion from the 2006-2007 harvest season, Gabrielli said. The country's ethanol exports in the same period are expected to jump to 16.5 billion liters from the current 3.4 billion.
Despite the increasing use of ethanol among light vehicles, Petrobras estimated diesel fuel will retain its position as Brazil's most widely used transport fuel across all vehicle types, accounting for 50.5% of automotive fuels consumed in Brazil in 2020, down slightly from 52.5% in 2006.
The government has mandated that diesel, used mainly by trucks and buses, must be mixed with 2% biodiesel from 2008, rising to a 5% blend from 2013. Biodiesel, made from plants such as soy, castor beans, jatropha or sunflower seeds, is expected to represent 2.6% of automotive fuel sales in 2020.
Compressed natural gas, or CNG, will increase its market share from 4.3% in 2006 to 7.4% in 2020, Petrobras reckons. Brazil and neighboring Argentina currently have the world's largest fleets of vehicles running on CNG.
Petrobras also expects hybrid vehicles to gain a foothold in the Brazilian market early in the next decade, but doesn't think they will start playing a significant role in Brazil for a long time. Hybrid vehicles combine combustion engines running on fuels with electric motors in order to save fuel and reduce emissions of greenhouse gases.
Image: Brazil's President Lula showcasing a tri-fuel vehicle capable of running on ethanol, gasoline, and natural gas.
References:
Dow Jones Newswires: Ethanol Sales To Exceed Gasoline In Brazil By 2020-Petrobras - October 8, 2007.
Biopact: Petrobras starts approving joint ventures worth $1 billion to set up 20 new ethanol plants - September 27, 2007
Biopact: Flex-fuel vehicles in Brazil hit 2 million mark, make up 77% of the market - August 18, 2006
Biopact: Inflation in Brazil decreased more than expected on lower ethanol, food prices - September 21, 2007
Biopact: Experts: Brazil victim of its own biofuels success, as ethanol price collapses - September 21, 2007
Biopact: Brazilian biofuels can meet world's total gasoline needs - expert - May 21, 2007
Biopact: Brazilian ethanol is sustainable and has a very positive energy balance - IEA report - October 08, 2006
1 Comments:
So, One Question: Why haven't they pressured the auto companies to manufacture a "true" ethanol-optimized engine?
They have ethanol everywhere, and it would give much better performance, and "efficiency," than a flex-fuel engine optimized for gasoline, or, 20% ethanol (an engine I've heard that they DO have.)
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