Malaysian palm oil surges as crude approaches $100 - will the sector expand overseas?
Crude palm oil futures contracts traded on the Malaysian derivatives exchange extended their record run after crude oil prices hit new highs in Asian trading today. According to Ben Santoso, DBS Vickers' plantation analyst in Indonesia, palm oil demand will outpace supply as rising oil prices will further spark interest in biofuels. Palm oil can be transesterified into biodiesel or used as a feedstock for next generation 'green diesel' (see NExBTL and palm oil). Over the longer term, its vaste waste biomass streams can be converted into cellulosic biofuels.
At midday, the benchmark contract for January delivery was up 70 ringgit at 2,870 ringgit (€597/$859) per metric ton. New York's main futures contract, light sweet crude for December delivery surged past $93 per barrel on mounting tensions in the Middle East.
The record prices are good news for the millions of small holders who grow the crop in South East Asia. But palm oil is also a basic foodstuff for the poor across the world, who spend most of their small budgets on food, including a large fraction on vegetable oils necessary to a healthy diet. For them, the surge is disastrous. However, a long term solution might be to expand the sector into regions where most of these poor live - that is rural Africa - and to have them actively participate in this booming market as small holders. This is more sensible than keeping them dependent on food hand outs from the World Food Program. However, it is only a long term ideal and doesn't tackle the current crisis. A temporary moratorium on palm oil's use for biofuels might be in order.
But there is more to the high price than the potential for biofuels alone. "Adverse weather, limitation of cultivated land as well as persistently high crude oil prices are issues which will be reflected in stronger prices", Santoso added. Malaysia and Indonesia together account for more than 85 percent of global palm oil production but both countries are expected to lower palm oil output this year after major palm oil-producing areas were hit by severe flooding early this year.
Besides these factors, demand for palm oil, especially from booming economies like China and India, is surging. The combination of all these factors - limited land in SE Asia, continuing high demand from rapidly developing economies, and the potential for biofuels - makes that the most effective long term strategy to reduce the price and to limit the damage to the poor, could be an expansion of the sector into Africa and Latin America, especially in zones where most of the world's 854 food insecure people live (that is in rural Africa). This would bring social and economic development and jobs to these rural poor, provided a small holder model is implemented. Their participation in a sustainable new market might be a more attractive solution to poverty alleviation, than keeping them dependent on food hand outs by the World Food Program.
Both Africa and Latin America have a very large unexplored potential for the cultivation of the crop (map, click to enlarge):
energy :: sustainability :: ethanol :: biodiesel :: biomass :: bioenergy :: biofuels :: palm oil :: crude oil :: Malaysia ::
The combination of a healthy long term demand outlook and the double use of palm oil as food and fuel, makes the world's most productive first generation biofuel crop virtually irresistible for investors. However, persistent high prices may initiate a 'gold-rush' type of investment into the sector, which could damage the sustainability of the crop.
Earlier, a Chinese company announced it is studying an investment of not less than $1 billion into a 3 million hectare palm oil and rubber plantation in the Democratic Republic of Congo - a highly problematic announcement given Congo's pristine rainforests which have been spared most of the palm oil driven destruction seen in Indonesia and Malaysia. Besides half a million barrels of oil equivalent energy, the Chinese project would bring 'a hundred thousand jobs' (previous post).
Soon after, Beijing officially announced a $5 billion investment into Congo's natural resource sector and into its infrastructures, to the surprise of institutions like the World Bank (earlier post).
New palm oil varieties, amongst them a cold-tolerant cultivar that has been trialed with success in the highlands of Kenya, offer major opportunities for social and economic development elsewhere in Africa than in the typical high potential zones. The crop requires relatively low inputs and upfront investments, and is highly suitable for a small holder model. As it is harvested manually and a perennial crop, there is no need for expensive farm equipment - which is often a major bottleneck in attempts to have small farmers participate in other crop markets.
The average price of crude palm oil for 2007 is estimated at 2,450 ringgit (€510/$734) before it accelerates to 2,650 ringgit (€551/$794) next year, added a market analyst.
References:
Forbes: Malaysia's palm oil prices surge as crude crosses 93 dollars - October 29, 2007.
Biopact: DR Congo: Chinese company to invest $1 billion in 3 million hectare oil palm plantation - July 28, 2007
Biopact: China 'opening up' Congo for minerals, bioenergy with massive $5 billion loan - September 20, 2007
Biopact: UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food to call for a 5-year moratorium on first generation liquid biofuels - October 25, 2007
Biopact: Neste Oil supports sustainable palm oil for next-generation biodiesel - October 19, 2007
At midday, the benchmark contract for January delivery was up 70 ringgit at 2,870 ringgit (€597/$859) per metric ton. New York's main futures contract, light sweet crude for December delivery surged past $93 per barrel on mounting tensions in the Middle East.
The record prices are good news for the millions of small holders who grow the crop in South East Asia. But palm oil is also a basic foodstuff for the poor across the world, who spend most of their small budgets on food, including a large fraction on vegetable oils necessary to a healthy diet. For them, the surge is disastrous. However, a long term solution might be to expand the sector into regions where most of these poor live - that is rural Africa - and to have them actively participate in this booming market as small holders. This is more sensible than keeping them dependent on food hand outs from the World Food Program. However, it is only a long term ideal and doesn't tackle the current crisis. A temporary moratorium on palm oil's use for biofuels might be in order.
But there is more to the high price than the potential for biofuels alone. "Adverse weather, limitation of cultivated land as well as persistently high crude oil prices are issues which will be reflected in stronger prices", Santoso added. Malaysia and Indonesia together account for more than 85 percent of global palm oil production but both countries are expected to lower palm oil output this year after major palm oil-producing areas were hit by severe flooding early this year.
Besides these factors, demand for palm oil, especially from booming economies like China and India, is surging. The combination of all these factors - limited land in SE Asia, continuing high demand from rapidly developing economies, and the potential for biofuels - makes that the most effective long term strategy to reduce the price and to limit the damage to the poor, could be an expansion of the sector into Africa and Latin America, especially in zones where most of the world's 854 food insecure people live (that is in rural Africa). This would bring social and economic development and jobs to these rural poor, provided a small holder model is implemented. Their participation in a sustainable new market might be a more attractive solution to poverty alleviation, than keeping them dependent on food hand outs by the World Food Program.
Both Africa and Latin America have a very large unexplored potential for the cultivation of the crop (map, click to enlarge):
energy :: sustainability :: ethanol :: biodiesel :: biomass :: bioenergy :: biofuels :: palm oil :: crude oil :: Malaysia ::
The combination of a healthy long term demand outlook and the double use of palm oil as food and fuel, makes the world's most productive first generation biofuel crop virtually irresistible for investors. However, persistent high prices may initiate a 'gold-rush' type of investment into the sector, which could damage the sustainability of the crop.
Earlier, a Chinese company announced it is studying an investment of not less than $1 billion into a 3 million hectare palm oil and rubber plantation in the Democratic Republic of Congo - a highly problematic announcement given Congo's pristine rainforests which have been spared most of the palm oil driven destruction seen in Indonesia and Malaysia. Besides half a million barrels of oil equivalent energy, the Chinese project would bring 'a hundred thousand jobs' (previous post).
Soon after, Beijing officially announced a $5 billion investment into Congo's natural resource sector and into its infrastructures, to the surprise of institutions like the World Bank (earlier post).
New palm oil varieties, amongst them a cold-tolerant cultivar that has been trialed with success in the highlands of Kenya, offer major opportunities for social and economic development elsewhere in Africa than in the typical high potential zones. The crop requires relatively low inputs and upfront investments, and is highly suitable for a small holder model. As it is harvested manually and a perennial crop, there is no need for expensive farm equipment - which is often a major bottleneck in attempts to have small farmers participate in other crop markets.
The average price of crude palm oil for 2007 is estimated at 2,450 ringgit (€510/$734) before it accelerates to 2,650 ringgit (€551/$794) next year, added a market analyst.
References:
Forbes: Malaysia's palm oil prices surge as crude crosses 93 dollars - October 29, 2007.
Biopact: DR Congo: Chinese company to invest $1 billion in 3 million hectare oil palm plantation - July 28, 2007
Biopact: China 'opening up' Congo for minerals, bioenergy with massive $5 billion loan - September 20, 2007
Biopact: UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food to call for a 5-year moratorium on first generation liquid biofuels - October 25, 2007
Biopact: Neste Oil supports sustainable palm oil for next-generation biodiesel - October 19, 2007
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