Centre for European Economic Research survey: experts see rising prices for all energy commodities over the next five years
A great majority of experts questioned in the course of the authoritative ZEW Energy Barometer [*.pdf/German] compiled by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) expect rising prices for all energy commodities - electricity, natural gas, crude oil and coal - for industrial clients over the next five years. This means bio-based alternatives, capable of covering all commodity categories, are likely to become more attractive.
An overwhelming majory of the more than 200 leading experts questioned [*.German] by the ZEW expect energy prices to rise in the long run (graph, click to enlarge).
energy :: sustainability :: biomass :: bioenergy :: biofuels :: coal :: oil :: natural gas :: electricity ::
In the course of the current survey just 49% of experts think that electricity prices will stagnate over the next six months (in the first half of 2007 about 57% thought so). Just 2% expect prices to fall (as compared to 6% in the first half of 2007). On the other hand, 49% now believe that electricity prices will increase over the six months to come.
Experts' view on the short-term development of oil and gas prices is also far more critical than six months ago. Thus, a narrow majority expects stagnating prices (about 47% for oil and 50% for natural gas). Approximately 45% of experts, however, think that oil prices will increase and 40% believe so with regard to natural gas. About two thirds of experts predict coal prices to remain constant, about 30% believe that they will rise and just 3% forecast coal prices to fall in the next six months.
The ZEW Energy Barometer is compiled twice a year based on a survey conducted among 200 energy experts from both the scientific as the economic sectors (utilities, traders, service companies, think tanks, analysts) who are questioned as to their expectations about market developments over both the short (6 months) and long term (5 years).
The ZEW (Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforzung) is a leading European economic research institute. It works in the field of user-related empirical economic research. In this context it particularly distinguished itself nationally and internationally by analysing internationally comparative issues in the European context and by compiling scientifically important data bases. The ZEW is a non-profit economic research institute associated with the University of Mannheim and supported by the government of the federal state of Baden-Württemberg.
The ZEW is a member of the "Leibniz-Gemeinschaft", one of Germany's largest scientific organisations comprised of 84 non-university research institutes and service facilities.
References:
Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung, Mannheim: Schwerpunkt Energiemarkt - September 2007.
Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung, Mannheim: ZEW-Energiemarktbarometer - Experten erwarten keine Entspannung bei Energiepreisen - October 2007.
Biopact: Coal prices hit records too - time for biomass? - October 03, 2007
An overwhelming majory of the more than 200 leading experts questioned [*.German] by the ZEW expect energy prices to rise in the long run (graph, click to enlarge).
- Electricity: 84% think that prices for electricity will increase over the next five years. About 13% believe that prices will stay at their current level and just 3% forecast prices to fall.
- Natural gas: approximately 84% of those questioned think that prices for natural gas will increase; a minority of 9% believes that prices will stop rising and remain stagnant. The percentage of experts who forecast prices to fall in the long run is even smaller at about 7%.
- Oil: 82% expect prices for oil to keep rising over the coming five years; a small minority of 11% believes prices may stagnate; a fall in oil prices is predicted by 7% of the experts.
- Coal: 65% of experts expect rising prices, 30% believe that by the year 2012 the coal price could be at a similar record level as that of 2007 (earlier post), and 5% think coal prices could fall below this year's level.
energy :: sustainability :: biomass :: bioenergy :: biofuels :: coal :: oil :: natural gas :: electricity ::
In the course of the current survey just 49% of experts think that electricity prices will stagnate over the next six months (in the first half of 2007 about 57% thought so). Just 2% expect prices to fall (as compared to 6% in the first half of 2007). On the other hand, 49% now believe that electricity prices will increase over the six months to come.
Experts' view on the short-term development of oil and gas prices is also far more critical than six months ago. Thus, a narrow majority expects stagnating prices (about 47% for oil and 50% for natural gas). Approximately 45% of experts, however, think that oil prices will increase and 40% believe so with regard to natural gas. About two thirds of experts predict coal prices to remain constant, about 30% believe that they will rise and just 3% forecast coal prices to fall in the next six months.
The ZEW Energy Barometer is compiled twice a year based on a survey conducted among 200 energy experts from both the scientific as the economic sectors (utilities, traders, service companies, think tanks, analysts) who are questioned as to their expectations about market developments over both the short (6 months) and long term (5 years).
The ZEW (Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforzung) is a leading European economic research institute. It works in the field of user-related empirical economic research. In this context it particularly distinguished itself nationally and internationally by analysing internationally comparative issues in the European context and by compiling scientifically important data bases. The ZEW is a non-profit economic research institute associated with the University of Mannheim and supported by the government of the federal state of Baden-Württemberg.
The ZEW is a member of the "Leibniz-Gemeinschaft", one of Germany's largest scientific organisations comprised of 84 non-university research institutes and service facilities.
References:
Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung, Mannheim: Schwerpunkt Energiemarkt - September 2007.
Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung, Mannheim: ZEW-Energiemarktbarometer - Experten erwarten keine Entspannung bei Energiepreisen - October 2007.
Biopact: Coal prices hit records too - time for biomass? - October 03, 2007
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