Forest-rich developing nations willing to slow deforestation, on their own terms

Tropical deforestation, which releases more than 1.5 billion metric tons of carbon to the atmosphere every year, is a major contributor to global climate change. Recognizing this, a group of forest-rich developing nations have called for a strategy to make forest preservation politically and economically attractive. The result is a two-year initiative, dubbed "Reducing Emissions from Deforestation" (RED), launched by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

The key driver behind deforestation in the tropics is poverty, which is why economic incentives to slow down the practise must be strong enough and actually reach the communities on the ground. Several concepts like 'compensated reduction' (also known as 'avoided deforestation') have been proposed, but implementing them would be very difficult.

In a Policy Forum article appearing in the May 10 edition of Science Express, an international team of climate researchers now proposes alternative financing schemes.

The team first makes a case for the RED initiative from a scientific and technological standpoint. Christopher Field, director of the Carnegie Institution's Department of Global Ecology and a co-author on the policy article says "many of these countries resisted certain provisions of the Kyoto Protocol because they felt that it intruded on their national sovereignty. Now, they are ready and willing to address forestry strategies in a constructive manner, on their own terms. It is very encouraging."

Scientific and technical perspectives
On the scientific and technical side, the authors address two main questions. First, can preserving tropical forests make a significant dent in climate-threatening carbon emissions?". And second, will these preserved forests be able to survive in an environment altered by the climate change that cannot be avoided?":
bioenergy :: biofuels :: energy :: sustainability :: climate change :: deforestation :: poverty :: compensated reduction :: developing countries ::

"The answer in both cases is a qualified 'yes,'" Field said. "As with all measures to address global warming, the key is immediate and aggressive action."

On the first question, the authors found that reducing deforestation rates by 50% over the next century will save an average of about half a billion metric tons of carbon every year. This by itself could account for as much as 12% of the total reductions needed from all carbon sources to meet the IPCC target of 450 parts per million of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by the year 2100.

As for the second issue, computer models that link climate effects to changes in the carbon cycle have predicted that tropical forests will survive and continue to act as a "sink" by absorbing carbon, provided that emissions can be kept under control . The efficiency of the tropical forest as a carbon sink might in fact diminish over time, but the authors expect that it will not disappear completely.

Policies and implementation
The political challenges to reducing deforestation in the tropical developing world are varied and complex. Traditionally, many countries have viewed their forests as an economic resource that they have the right to harvest, much as oil- and ore-rich nations exercise the right to harvest those resources. As such, many proposed solutions are centered on direct economic incentives to reduce rates of tree clearing.

However, the authors of the policy article describe low-cost measures that can enhance the success of carbon-trade systems and subsidized low-carbon development programs. For example, by strategically evaluating forest land to determine its value for other uses, developing countries can focus on clearing only areas with high agricultural value.

"It will require political will and sound economic strategy to make the RED initiative work," explains Field. "But the initiative provides a big reduction in emissions at low cost. It is a good example of the kind of creative thinking that can help solve the climate problem."

Scepticism
The Biopact hopes this kind of schemes works out, but remains sceptical for several reasons: the initiative requires considerable investments in capacity building in the developing countries, to make sure that funds actually reach the poorest communities who else have no alternative but to deforest. A culture of corruption and bureaucracy will make it very difficult to have the funds trickle down to the bottom, where they are needed most. Moreover, such an initiative entails the risk of pushing people into poverty, as those at the top who receive and manage the incentive to preserve forests (politicians, bureaucrats, local authorities) might force communities who make a living from deforestation-based agriculture off their lands without providing them an alternative. If not monitored well, the scheme could trigger a war against the poor.

Secondly, there is a more fundamental economic problem. If oil prices were to increase strongly (not unlikely if 'Peak Oil' is real), forest land becomes valuable as a resource to grow certain biofuel crops. The opportunity costs of 'RED' will then be examined, and it is not unthinkable that biofuels - which can replace costly fossil fuels - will be seen as a more interesting economic opportunity. Biofuels in that case would have nothing to do any longer with reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but would become pure energy sources grown in order to boost energy security.

Given the high energy intensity of the economies of developing nations, the strict correlation between access to low cost energy and economic development, the very low demand elasticity of oil and transport fuels, and the relatively low investments needed to convert some biofuel feedstocks (like palm oil and sugarcane) into diesel and gasoline substitutes, this scenario is not unrealistic. Sadly, projections showing the effects of serious oil price increases on the viability of 'compensated reduction' schemes are left out of the analysis too often. We urge policy makers and analysts to include them.

More information:
UNFCC: Workshop on reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries, 7-9 March 2007 in Cairns, Australia.

UNFCC: Report on the second workshop on reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries - [*.pdf] April 17, 2007.

Raymond E. Gullison, et al, "Tropical Forests and Climate Policy", Science Express, May 10, 2007, DOI: 10.1126/science.1136163