IEA Chief: "no silver bullet to cut greenhouse gas emissions"

Speaking at a meeting of the UN's Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) in which energy security, efficiency and climate change took central stage, International Energy Agency (IAE) chief Claude Mandil warned there was no "silver bullet" which by itself would cut greenhouse-gas emissions that drive dangerous climate change.

Mandil set a target of an early cut of a billion tonnes of emissions per year and said a full range of measures - which he said included renewable energy, carbon storage, nuclear power and energy efficiency - should be harnessed. His statements come on the eve of the publication of the report on mitigating climate change to be released early May by Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The unsustainable present
Current fossil-fuel dominated energy demand increases carbon dioxide (CO2) by one billion tonnes every two years, according to IEA data. Energy demand will grow by more than 50 percent by 2030 if the pattern of consumption remains unchanged. "This is not sustainable," Mandil reiterated.

Even very basic energy savings like phasing out wasteful incandescent light bulbs from 2008 and better street lighting could make significant inroads, the IEA chief argued. The global cost of lighting could be reduced by 2.6 trillion dollars by 2030 and a cumulative 16 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide could be saved, according to the agency. "The difference could reach one-third of lighting costs in 2030," Mandil said. "The additional investment costs would easily be offset by consumption savings."

However, none of the technological steps could be implemented on the kind of scale needed to tackle greenhouse gas emissions on their own, he cautioned. About 78 percent of CO2 savings were likely to come from more efficient use of energy and 22 percent from cleaner energy sources by 2030, according to the agency.

Mandil said that to avoid one billion tonnes of greenhouse gases a year, the world would need to replace 300 convention coal-fired power plants with zero emission electricity generation every year, or build 150 one-gigawatt nuclear power plants. That is also the equivalent of multiplying the United States's current solar power capacity by about 1,300 every year or 200 times the US wind farm capacity.

Carbon capture and storage
So-called carbon capture and storage (CCS) techniques - which involve pumping carbon dioxide underground - are still largely untested and very costly with current technology. CCS is also contested in some scientific quarters, with experts fearing that storage chambers could be breached by earthquake or porous geology, spewing the CO2 into the atmosphere. (Which is why the Biopact thinks using CCS with carbon neutral biofuels is the safest way forward to test the technology - see our text at EurActiv; such a 'Bio-Energy with Carbon Storage' concept would also result in a carbon-negative energy system).

Mandil said 1,000 large carbon sequestration plants would have to be built annually to meet climate change targets. "But we're afraid that in 2030, carbon capture and sequestration technologies would not be available at an affordable cost on a large scale at that time," he said.

Thierry Desmarest, chairman of French oil giant Total which has a pilot CCS unit in Lacq in southwest France (earlier post), said it costs $100 a metric ton to capture and store CO2. An important objective would be to divide this cost by one-half or one-third, Desmarest told the forum in Geneva. CCS used in combination with biogas would be considerably less costly (previous post).

Biofuels to play major role
IEA chief Mandil said that biofuels had the potential to play a major role, but here again the challenge would be to reduce cost. "It will not be possible in the long term to sustain in the future with sustained subsidies," he said. Both Mandil and the IEA's Chief Economist earlier called on the EU and the US stop subsidizing their inefficient biofuels, to lift their trade barriers on imported biofuels, and to source the green fuels there where they can be produced cost-effectively and efficiently (earlier post):
biofuels :: energy :: sustainability :: climate change :: greenhouse gases :: fossil fuels :: renewables ::ethanol :: biodiesel :: biomass :: bioenergy :: carbon negative :: carbon capture and storage :: IEA ::

Brazil and the United States, the two largest producers of ethanol, accounting for about 70 percent of world output, last month signed a broad agreement to work together to advance biofuels technology and set common standards for ethanol trade (earlier post).

Gregory Manuel, special advisor to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, said the United States was working with India, China, South Africa and the European Commission "to bring a standard to biofuels use such that the exponential potential for biofuels can be carried through with maximum efficiency". We reported on this recently launched effort, here.

The United States was looking at bringing the benefits of biofuels to certain countries, starting in the Western Hemisphere, but also in Africa and south-east Asia, he said. "The sustainability issues are critical and are integrated into that approach," Manuel said. The United States was also working with Brazil on research and development, "bringing second generation biofuels to the marketplace, hopefully faster than predicted," he said.

Global effort and US commitment needed
The chairman of French oil group Total, also addressing the meeting, welcomed Europe's role in spearheading movement on climate change but underlined the need for a global response. "That has to be welcomed, but that pioneering venture will only work if the United States and major emerging nations, which produce the most (greenhouse gas) emissions commit themselves to an equivalent effort," Thierry Demarest said.

The Total chief warned that unless that happened, the European effort could harm its industry's competitiveness in the longer term. The UN's Kyoto protocol set targets for industrialised countries to trim outputs of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other gases that trap solar heat, unbalancing the planet's delicate climate system, by 2012.

However, the United States and Australia have stayed out of the binding agreement, while efforts to draw up a post-2012 deal drawing in developing countries are mired in problems.

More information:
Reuters: No silver bullet to cut emissions: IEA chief - April 28, 2007.

France24: AFP News Brief: No silver bullet to combat climate change: IEA chief - April 28, 2007.

United Nations Economic Commission for Europe: Sixty-second session 25-27 April 2007, Palais des Nations, Geneva.

United Nations Economic Commission for Europe: Sustainable Energy Policies: the Key to Energy Security in the UNECE Region - Speakers Briefing Note [*.pdf], April 27, 2007.