The question is not whether to invest in biofuels, but where
Quicknote bioenergy economics
For a piece entitled "Can biofuels become the next petroleum?", Reuters asked a group of oil, commodity and technology analysts to share their views on the long term viability of the global biofuels sector. The diversity of perspectives covers the entire spectrum, from those who think biofuels cannot be scaled up fast enough, to those who feel now is the time to invest because green fuels have arrived at a point of no return.
Paris-based consultant Delahouliere made the most interesting analysis when he summarised his vision as follows: "The question is not whether to invest but where to invest. I would do it in a poor country growing sugar cane with free access to Europe." Delahouliere refers here to the so-called ACP-countries (Africa, Caribbean, Pacific) with which the EU has signed a deal under the Cotonou Agreement which allows these developing countries to enter the EU's (sugar) market without facing any trade barriers. At the same time, the EU is carrying out its long-awaited sugar reform, removing its sugar subsidies steadily over the coming years, with the goal of abolishing them entirely by 2009 for 49 of the world's poorest countries.
In short, some of the world's least developed countries, mainly in Africa, have both large unused land resources, would welcome employment, and have free access to the world's largest economy, both for ethanol as well as for biofuels feedstocks. Investing in these countries now makes sense.
Other analysts agreed that for the time being, only biofuels from the South are competive. In both the EU and the US, they need subsidies in order to survive. And with falling oil prices, this becomes even more the case. Taking into account the lower energy content of ethanol, when the biofuel is made from sugar cane in the South it survives petroleum prices of around US$40 per barrel. Palm oil biodiesel is viable as long as oil prices stay above US$50 per barrel.
Most analysts further expected the introduction of second generation biofuels (such as cellulosic ethanol or biomass-to-liquids), to be at least 10 to 15 years away from market introduction. This means that only tropical biofuels stand a chance of surviving on an open world market [entry ends here].
ethanol :: biodiesel :: bioenergy :: biofuels :: energy :: sustainability :: investment :: developing world ::
For a piece entitled "Can biofuels become the next petroleum?", Reuters asked a group of oil, commodity and technology analysts to share their views on the long term viability of the global biofuels sector. The diversity of perspectives covers the entire spectrum, from those who think biofuels cannot be scaled up fast enough, to those who feel now is the time to invest because green fuels have arrived at a point of no return.
Paris-based consultant Delahouliere made the most interesting analysis when he summarised his vision as follows: "The question is not whether to invest but where to invest. I would do it in a poor country growing sugar cane with free access to Europe." Delahouliere refers here to the so-called ACP-countries (Africa, Caribbean, Pacific) with which the EU has signed a deal under the Cotonou Agreement which allows these developing countries to enter the EU's (sugar) market without facing any trade barriers. At the same time, the EU is carrying out its long-awaited sugar reform, removing its sugar subsidies steadily over the coming years, with the goal of abolishing them entirely by 2009 for 49 of the world's poorest countries.
In short, some of the world's least developed countries, mainly in Africa, have both large unused land resources, would welcome employment, and have free access to the world's largest economy, both for ethanol as well as for biofuels feedstocks. Investing in these countries now makes sense.
Other analysts agreed that for the time being, only biofuels from the South are competive. In both the EU and the US, they need subsidies in order to survive. And with falling oil prices, this becomes even more the case. Taking into account the lower energy content of ethanol, when the biofuel is made from sugar cane in the South it survives petroleum prices of around US$40 per barrel. Palm oil biodiesel is viable as long as oil prices stay above US$50 per barrel.
Most analysts further expected the introduction of second generation biofuels (such as cellulosic ethanol or biomass-to-liquids), to be at least 10 to 15 years away from market introduction. This means that only tropical biofuels stand a chance of surviving on an open world market [entry ends here].
ethanol :: biodiesel :: bioenergy :: biofuels :: energy :: sustainability :: investment :: developing world ::
1 Comments:
The readers at BioPact might find the alternative energy coverage we have at BSRNews of interest. As a start, I suggest our recent Reflections analysis titled Biofuels. The URL is http://www.bsrnews.com/viewitem.asp?rid=18
Best wishes
Post a Comment
Links to this post:
Create a Link
<< Home